Elizabeth Dole is still a distant second.Mr Gore is still perceived as a wooden Indian. The more important the charisma factor becomes, the poorer his prospects.Senator John McCain of Arizona, a maverick Vietnam war hero, can not be written off, but Bob Smith, the New Hampshire Senator who was one of the first to declare his candidacy, ought to be.The right-winger Pat Buchanan has twice failed to win the nomination already – and Lamar Alexander, the former governor of Tennessee, is unlikely to survive the primaries.Ohio Congressman John Kasich, the conservative campaigner Gary Bauer; former vice-president Dan Quayle, and publisher Steve Forbes all fancy their chances more than they should.Key to prospectsDemocrat no-hoperRepublicanno-hoperOutside chanceLooking goodHot favourite. Mr Bush’s “compassionate conservatism” doesn’t wash with key elements of the party machine. He is running as much as 20 points behind Mr Bush in polls that ask voters whom they would prefer as president in a Gore-Bush contest.So while many analysts are already confidently forecasting a Gore-Bush contest in 2000, others insist that neither nomination is as certain as it appears – even if the candidates’ list is, to all intents and purposes, closed.Contendersfor thePresidencyGEORGE BUSH and Al Gore are the front runners. Neither, however, has campaigned at national level before, and the more experienced members of the Washington punditocracy note that either could trip up on policy questions, if not on the sort of scandal that almost thwarted Bill Clinton’s presidential bid in 1992.Mr Bush has already fallen foul of some sections of the party, including the religious right, which has an influence in the primaries that is out of proportion to its influence among Republican voters in the country, and may be enhanced in the wake of the Lewinsky affair.Any candidate – Mr Bush included – has to surmount the hurdle of the primaries before presenting himself to the electorate and a Republican candidate who can survive the primaries may not be the same candidate who would be embraced by the country.Although it is taken for granted at this stage that the Democratic nomination is Al Gore’s for the taking, there are rumblings in the party ranks about his electability.

A national elected parliament is planned and yesterday’s polls are a first step towards the legislature that is expected to be set up early in the next century.
Female voters turned up in greater numbers than men at many constituencies in the capital, Doha. There were even six women among the 248 candidates competing in the country’s first democratic elections since independence from Britain in 1971. Qataris were voting for representatives on a new 29-member central municipal council that is to give advice on food and public hygiene to the ministry of municipal affairs and agriculture. This may seem a modest democratic advance, but the elections are seen as a watershed. The Dnevni Telegraf owner, Slavko Curuvija, and journalists Srdjan Jankovic and Zoran Lukovic were sentenced for “spreading false reports”.. THEY WERE separated from the men by wooden screens, but the women of Qatar still made history yesterday when they voted for the first time in a nationwide poll.

The army prevented international observers from reaching the area.t The owner of an outspoken Serbian newspaper and two of its journalists were sentenced to five months in jail. “Halfway measures to independence are unacceptable unless they lead to full independence,” he said, making a rare public appearance with other KLA leaders.They were attending a ceremony to mark the first anniversary of the killing of Adem Jashari, a KLA founder who died with 50 relatives in a three-day battle with Serbian forces.The gathering of at least 500 armed KLA fighters alongside 5,000 civilians was only a mile from a Serbian military base in the province.At the last round of Kosovo peace talks in Rambouillet, France, the KLA said it could not sign a deal before consulting soldiers and local people.Fighting continued on Kosovo’s southern border with Macedonia yesterday, as Yugoslav forces bombarded villages near the town of Kacanik. They also oppose Russia’s proposed participation in the international peace-keeping force for the province, as Russia is Serbia’s close ally.Suleyman Selimi, the KLA chief of staff, warned at the weekend that the rebels would not accept a compromise. If the Albanian rebels formally sign their agreement before 15 March, when the Kosovar and Serbian sides are due to convene in France for further talks, Mr Milosevic may face a renewed threat of air strikes from Nato.Mr Milosevic has said Yugoslavia might offer self-rule to Kosovo but will not countenance a Nato peace-keeping force on Yugoslav territory to implement the deal.Richard Holbrooke, the US architect of the 1995 Bosnian peace plan, is expected in Belgrade today to cajole Mr Milosevic into further concessions.Western diplomats had strongly urged the KLA to agree to the deal.Germany’s Foreign Minister, Joschka Fischer, said the rebels would be making a “historical mistake” if they rejected the plan.

The European Union’s foreign affairs commissioner, Hans van den Broek, was more blunt: “We need a ‘yes’ or it will be a big mess.”The sticking points for the KLA did not only concern weapons. The KLA’s move will sharply increase pressure on the Yugosolav government of Slobodan Milosevic to accept the interim deal on autonomy for the province, which has a large Albanian majority.
Guerrilla leaders told a US envoy, Christopher Hill, they had authorised the plan after meeting at a secret location in Kosovo. However, the rebels have yet to publicise their decision and are still believed to oppose calls to disarm during the three years of autonomy from Serbia envisaged in the deal. THE COMMANDERS of the rebel Kosovo Liberation Army told Western diplomats yesterday they will sign the proposed peace deal for the Serb province. Washington is claiming $520m.European diplomats are confident that if the trade organisation does award compensation, it will be less than Washington demanded – perhaps $150m to $200m.