Not since Margaret Thatcher went to the Palace in 1983 has an election campaign in this country seemed such an unequal contest at the start. The conventional wisdom hardened suddenly a few weeks ago ­ a moment that can be identified quite accurately by locating the point at the beginning of April at which the graph of new cases of foot-and-mouth peaked ­ that Tony Blair will not just be granted a second term but will win by a second landslide. Since then, the Conservatives, bordering on panic, have seemed intent on committing electoral suicide. You do not have to be a nervous prime minister, however, to think that the conventional wisdom is bound to be wrong.
For one thing, democratic electorates do not like being taken for granted.

For another, there is widespread lack of enthusiasm for the Prime Minister, the Government and politics in general. Thirdly, the differences between Labour under Michael Foot and the Conservatives under William Hague are rather greater than the similarities. It cannot fairly be said that the Tories are currently “unelectable” ­ even if that is precisely what Sir Edward Heath said last week. Mr Hague is a cool and articulate leader, and some of his party’s policies, on Europe and asylum in particular, unfortunately seem to reflect public opinion rather better than the Labour Government’s.It would be a mistake, therefore, to write off this election. Certainly, on the evidence of four years ago, Mr Blair will play a straight, defensive bat, taking no risks and ensuring his party keeps the imaginative and creative parts of its brain shut down for the duration.

But he may not find it so easy to smother the campaign this time, as the incumbent; he may find that much of the initiative lies with the opposition parties.Equally, it would be a mistake to dismiss this election as unimportant. The country is still ­ four years after Mr Blair rhetorically inaugurated the “New Jerusalem” ­ in a decrepit state. The health-service numbers may look impressive in the Treasury, but on the A&E benches and in the grimy wards, the outlook is still desperate. A modest rise in primary-school standards is overwhelmed by a sense of the mediocrity of British education. Simply getting from A to B in Blair’s Britain is too often a struggle ­ and has become more difficult over the past four years.